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The past few weeks suggest that the multi-month phase extension of the predictive price curve for Au may have finally ended. The price curve is above the predictive curve at this juncture, which suggests some mild downward pressure on prices in the near term, but not likely a break in the overall long term rise. Post hoc one can make up a series of narratives "explaining" why this is occurring now, as opposed to a year ago. A previous iteration of the model from October, 2015 is shown below and here on the blog. If you compare them, it may inform your judgement regarding how useful or useless these 'wrong' models are, depending on your perspective. I get some comments where naive individuals think that because the gold price didn't rise exactly on a particular date, the model is useless. The shortest answer I have is that they are all wrong, but quite useful to me, and to some, but not all readers.
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